China, the next unrivalled superpower?

刚看完Krassimir Petrov写于2004年9月的CHINA'S GREAT DEPRESSION，文中根据Rothbard的著作America's Great Depression中的分析，并与近年来(2001-2004)世界经济的现状比较后得出结论，认为中国目前的经济形势与美国当年大萧条来临前有着非常大的相似性，在此引用如下：
America
(1) to check Great Britain's drains of gold to the United States
(2) to stimulate foreign lending
(3) to stimulate agricultural exports
China
(1) to support the overvalued U.S. dollar
(2) to stimulate foreign lending
(3) to stimulate its manufacturing exports
并预测中国2009出现经济大萧条，依据是（1）美国1929.7停止经济增长-->1929.10股市崩溃-->early 1930经济形势一泻千里；（2）中国会在奥运后采取措施对过热的经济进行降温。
最后作者总结了5个可能引发大萧条的因素，这包括：(1) a worldwide currency, banking, or derivatives crisis, (2) a U.S. recession, (3) the containment of runaway inflation, (4) the disappearance of Chinese trade surpluses, and (5) an oil supply crisis。很明显前三个已经发生或者愈演愈烈。
文章结尾颇耐人寻味：Just like the U.S. emerged from the Great Depression as the unrivalled superpower of the world, so it is likely that China will emerge as the next.